Why did democracy work in the ROC (Taiwan)? This subseries answers with evidence rather than celebration. It studies party competition, electoral institutions, voter behavior, and democratic consolidation in the Republic of China (Taiwan) from 1996 — the year the presidency became directly elected — to the present.
The anchor papers are Taiwan Paper 1, which asks why the Kuomintang repeatedly lost presidential contests to the Democratic Progressive Party between 2000 and 2024 and answers with a multi-factor, phased framework (paper), and Taiwan Paper 2, which tests whether peaceful party alternation at the very top of government can be made repeatable rather than accidental, across eight direct presidential elections from 1996 to 2024. The Democratic Progressive Party as an institution is studied in DPP-01.
Together the papers trace a single arc: from the constitutional settlement that made the presidency directly elected, through three completed changes of the governing party (2000, 2008, 2016), to the mature pattern of split-ticket voting and divided government visible in 2024. The series reads the ROC (Taiwan) record as the longest continuous test case in the Chinese-speaking world of regular, peaceful alternation — and reads it critically, with attention to what the evidence cannot establish and where competing explanations survive.
For researchers approaching the series as background to transition design for mainland China: the papers deliberately separate the ROC (Taiwan) record from the PRC (Mainland) case. Cross-series comparisons belong to the ROC-TRANS-02 studies, not to these papers. This separation is methodological, not political — it is what makes any later comparison trustworthy.
Each paper states its question, its method, the grades it assigns to its evidence, the interpretations it rejects, and the limits of its sources. Start with the question that interests you; the papers cross-link where their findings depend on one another.
Papers
- From Authoritarian Ruling Party to Electoral Competitor: Why Did the Kuomintang (KMT) Repeatedly Lose to the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), 2000–2024? — Research Paper v1.0 (October 13, 2026)
- Direct Presidential Elections and Party Alternation in the ROC (Taiwan), 1996–2024 — Research Paper v1.0 (October 25, 2026)